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MAY 18, 2011 |
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By Matthew Continetti |
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COLD OPEN |
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I'm disappointed Mike Huckabee isn't running for president. Part of the reason is I spent an hour watching Huckabee just to hear the governor's decision. That's an hour of my life I won't get back.
Huckabee had a reasonable shot at the Republican nomination. The eventual nominee will win at least two of these three races: Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. Huckabee would have steamrolled the competition in Iowa and South Carolina. His biggest challenge was the prospect that the GOP establishment would rally behind Tim Pawlenty or Mitch Daniels. But the GOP establishment is not all that it's cracked up to be. Indeed, it's cracking up.
With Huckabee out, who else has a strong path to Tampa Bay? I'm interested to see if Mitch Daniels, should he run, has as much traction with Republican voters as he does with Republican commentators. I wouldn't count Pawlenty out, either. As for the rest, including Mitt Romney—well, you'd have trouble convincing me they can win.
I do think Michele Bachmann is helped by Huckabee's departure. Bachmann is fiery, entertaining, conservative, and intelligent (despite the well-publicized gaffes). She's a natural second choice for Huckabee supporters. There's a scenario where she wins Iowa. Beyond that, who knows?
Then there are the x-factors: Palin, Christie, and Ryan. With Huckabee out and the current field as weak as it is, surely Sarah Palin must be in Wasilla thinking, Why not? Palin's entry would completely scramble the presidential campaign. She's quite simply the most famous Republican woman in the world, with shrewd instincts, charisma, passionate supporters, and no fear. She'd completely overshadow Bachmann and the other Tea Party candidates. Going toe-to-toe with Pawlenty and Daniels would be difficult but not insurmountable. Remember: Palin beat Joe Biden in the 2008 vice presidential debate. (A Palin candidacy in the general election is a different matter.)
If Daniels decides not to run, or fails to catch on if he does, then there's a high probability either Chris Christie or Paul Ryan will enter the race. The missions to Princeton to draft Christie have already begun. Why? Let's all say it together: President Obama is a weak incumbent. The economy is in terrible shape. The budget is even worse. Obamacare is a disgusting mess. Republicans can't afford to miss this opportunity. Neither can the country. |
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LOOKING BACK |
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"What distinguishes the junk language of our day from the junk language of earlier days is that it is so quickly taken up by people who are supposed to—but of course don't—know better: journalists, public figures, academics in high places with low tastes. Glimpsing a recent book about Henry James, I came across the phrase 'James's take on this question.' Henry James had a point of view, insights, observations, aperçus, a striking pensée or two, yet I am certain that he didn't do 'takes,' ever. Before long I expect to find Leonardo or Michelangelo described as a multitasker."
—Joseph Epstein, "Multitask, Don't Ask," from our April 10, 2000, issue.
Remember you get full access to THE WEEKLY STANDARD archive when you subscribe. |
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FROM THE DESKTOP |
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JerrySeinfeld.com
Christopher Hitchens reviews the letters of Rosa Luxemburg
Was the "Spider-Man" musical doomed to fail?
"Shared scarcity" versus "renewed prosperity"
A new (nonfiction!) history of Area 51 |
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QUOTE OF THE WEEK (SO FAR!) |
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"In its main features the Declaration of Independence is a great spiritual document. It is a declaration not of material but of spiritual conceptions. Equality, liberty, popular sovereignty, the rights of man—these are not elements which we can see and touch. They are ideals. They have their source and their roots in the religious convictions. They belong to the unseen world. Unless the faith of the American people in these religious convictions is to endure, the principles of our Declaration will perish. We cannot continue to enjoy the result if we neglect and abandon the cause."
—President Calvin Coolidge, "Speech on the Occasion of the 150th Anniversary of the Declaration of Independence," included in What So Proudly We Hail: The American Soul in Story, Speech, and Song edited by Amy A. Kass, Leon R. Kass, and Diana Schaub, p. 690. |
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LOOKING AHEAD |
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Here's what's coming up in THE WEEKLY STANDARD: I profile Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky. Christopher Caldwell analyzes the shocking arrest of IMF chairman Dominique Strauss-Kahn. And Hoover Institution fellow Liam Julian reviews a new book on Montaigne. |
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PARTING SHOT |
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On May 19, President Obama plans to visit the State Department and deliver a speech on the Middle East. The scuttlebutt is that Obama plans to reflect on the death of Osama bin Laden, the Arab Awakening, and the Middle East peace process. My stomach churns whenever I think about what he might say.
The Arab revolutions have reached a dangerous inflection point. The war in Libya is a wreck. The Syrian dictator is attempting to crush all resistance to his rule. Egypt is in twilight, torn between the military, Salafists, and democrats as it prepares for September elections. The Gulf kingdoms have turned into police states. The Palestinian Authority has joined with Hamas.
The autocrats find ways to strike back. That's what happened over the weekend, when Palestinians stormed the Israeli border from four directions: Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, and Egypt. Spare me the "social media" gospel: If this wasn't an attempt by Iran and Syria to change the direction of Arab fury away from the dictators and toward Israel and the West, I don't know what is. Once again, Arab rulers have decided they'd rather attack and delegitimize Israel than address the decrepit state of their own countries.
What a tragedy it would be if the Arab Awakening were allowed to lapse into a third intifada. The only way to prevent that outcome, however, is for America to announce to the world that we stand with Israel and democracy against the enemies of freedom. Don't give Assad and Ahmadinejad the chance to turn this moment into an orgy of anti-Zionism and anti-Semitism. Say there's no way to make peace with leaders who are uninterested in peace—who murder, torture, and maim their own people or ally with a terrorist group that fires rockets at playgrounds and denies Israel's right to exist. Use the killing of bin Laden to press the advantage in Afghanistan, by giving commanders on the ground flexibility to determine troop numbers; in Libya, by giving NATO clearance and support to target Libyan infrastructure; in Iraq, by signaling America's willingness to maintain troops there at the government's invitation; and in the Greater Middle East, by declaring Bashar Assad a war criminal and sanctioning him and his family.
All this would push against the despots' counterattack, whereas rhapsodizing about a failed peace process would play into their hands. Which way will Obama go? Three guesses.
See you next week. And don't forget you can write me at editor@weeklystandard.com.
--Matthew Continetti
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