Subject: [vietnam] Egypt's Mubarak Has Resigned! - The Mubarak Screw Up & the Suleiman Danger
From: Clay Claiborne <cjc@LinuxBeach.net>
Date: 2/11/11, 12:22
To: vah-ao@LinuxBeach.net
Reply-To:
cjc@LinuxBeach.net

This morning the protesters filled Liberation Square as never before, they spilled out into the Parliament building grounds and surrounded the state TV building. Also in Alexandria, Suez, all over Egypt, the people turned out in unprecedented numbers in response to President Hosni Mubarak's defiant speech yesterday in which he refused to resign and instead merely transferred some of his power to his new Vice President and long time intelligence chief Omar Suleiman. The anger of the people yesterday was incredible but they did not turn to violence in their outrage. Instead they built their numbers all night and pushed forward their demand for Mubarak to step down. Today at about 6:00pm Cairo time, V.P. Omar Suleiman made a short 20 second speech in which he announced that Mubarak had stepped down and the army was taking control of Egypt.

Mubarak Is Gone!

This is a great victory for the people of Egypt and the world.

The Egyptian Revolution enters a new phase.

This was written before Mubarak's resignation and publish on WL Central last night but still very much applies.

The groups that have been robbing Egypt for the past thirty years represent a circle much broader than their fearless leader Hosni Mubarak. They include a certain section of the very rich in Egypt, high ranking army officers, senior NDP functionaries, the U.S. and European imperialists, and while space does not permit a complete listing of all the beneficiaries of the Mubarak regime, I would be remiss if I didn't point out that the Zionists have long been singing "What a friend we have in Cairo."

All of these groups can do very well without Mubarak and if they can carry on as before without Mubarak, that is just fine with them. Mubarak will be gone shortly. I think everybody but Hosni Mubarak knows that. By ceding his presidential powers to Omar Suleiman the way he did today he blew the best chance they had of a "smooth and orderly transition" to more of the same under a different label, namely a Suleiman regime.

That has been the major fall back strategy of all those forces that have backed the Mubarak regime except Mubarak. That's why he made Suleiman his first vice president in 30 years. That's why they have been raising his profile in recent years. Suleiman has been running the police state apparatus for more than two decades. The plan always was for a "smooth and orderly transition" from the Wizard of Oz to the man behind the curtain. What we saw today was a renegade in the Presidential Palace because Mubarak has no fall back strategy that doesn't include Mubarak.

So rather than even making the a show of stepping aside, he has so badly handled the hand over of power to Suleiman that it is clearly perceived by one and all as no regime change at all. Everyone now sees that Mubarak and Suleiman are two peas in a pod and won't buy into a Suleiman regime as even a transitional solution. Mubarak blew it for his side.

What they should have done was have something of a "falling out" between Mubarak and Suleiman. They should have made a show of Suleiman "seizing power" from Mubarak. Mubarak should have made a "show of stepping down." He should have lowered his head and said that he was going to the corner and putting the new guy in charge. That would have been their best chance of making that play work.

But Mubarak is too arrogate for that. Instead he spoke to the nation as though he was the father of errant children. He made it clear that he wasn't going anywhere and Suleiman was his boy. In doing this he accomplished two things. 1.) He made the Suleiman ploy completely untenable and 2.) He angered the anti-government opposition and increased their resolve.

Most people were disappointed when they didn't hear Mubarak resign yesterday. I don't thing they should be. By refusing this self-sacrifice Mubarak only made more likely the complete success of the revolution. In short, he blew it.

However this is also a time of great danger because Mubarak's play has done nothing to ease the situation and he has put a torturer at the hemp. They have already tried to put down the rebellion with three campaigns of massive violence against the people by my count. The first was the police violence between January 25th and the next Friday pray. When that failed them, they withdrew the police, opened up the prisons and sent in the looter and vandals. Once the people had organized effectively to deal with that, they sent the thugs with automatic weapons and Molotov cocktails to Tahrir Square.

They are no doubt planning a fourth and final wave of violence. Thirty years of history show that this is their favored way of meeting the people's demands. They know that this one must be worst that the ones that have come before if it is to have any chance of success. This is Suleiman's style, and that is why he is being given the command at this time. People must prepare for this.

Mubarak is a sly old fox and he purposely planned yesterday's news leaks and rumors to anger and provoke people. He is hoping that in their anger, the opposition will resort to methods which are unsound and will give him the cause to respond with extreme violence.
I hope this doesn't happen. IMHO the protesters should keep building the massive nature of their movement and prepare for a siege. Rather that attacking state television or the parliament building in such a way that it provokes the army, they should be working to split the army. The interests of the army rank and file are the same as the people. When they are won to the revolution, the revolution will succeed!
Here are the links to my articles at WL Central:

2011-02-06 Tunisia's Revolution Continues
2011-02-04 Tunisian Anonymous activists take on Egyptian cause
2011-02-04 Protesters roar back with "Day of Departure" for Mubarak
2011-02-03 Algerians plan Feb 12 protest against 19- year-long state of emergency
2011-02-01 Jordan's King Sacks Government as Protests Grow
2011-02-01 Tunisian Islamic Leader Returns as EU Freezes Ousted President's Assets
2011-02-01 Army Vows Not to Shoot as Protesters make Million Man Marches in Cairo, Alexandria Today [UPDATE: 2]
2011-01-30 Million Egyptian Protest Planned as Resistance Continues
2011-01-29 No Internet? No Problem! Anonymous Faxes Egypt
2011-01-28 In Jordan Thousands Demand New Government
2011-01-28 Mubarak Refuses to Step Down!
2011-01-28 Egypt is on Fire!
2011-01-27 Libya is in Revolt as Gaddafi Worries
2011-01-27 Algerians Plan Big Protest Rally for February 9th
2011-01-27 Tunisia Protests Continues as a Warrant is Issued for Ben Ali
2011-01-27 Tens of Thousands Rally in Yemen, Demand Change
2011-01-27 Mubarak Blinks as Egyptian Protests Continue for 3rd Day North African Hacker Humor
Here is a recap of my other DKos dairies on the Internet, North Africa and Anonymous:

BREAKING: Mubarak is Defiant
The Google Search for Wael Ghonim
Tunisia's Revolution Continues
Google Goes Rebel, Supports Egyptian Protest
Tunisian Anonymous activists take on Egyptian cause
Protesters roar back with "Day of Departure" for Mubarak
Act Now to Stop Mubarak's Thugs From Killing More! w Petition
Act Now to Stop Mubarak's Thugs From Killing More!
They Should Have Helped That Street Vendor
Million Egyptian Protest Planned as Resistance Continues
Huffington Post Disses the Jasmine Revolution Redux
No Internet? No Problem! Anonymous Faxes Egypt
Egypt is on Fire!
North African Revolution Continues
Egypt Protests Continue, Tunisia Wants Ben Ali Back
BREAKING: Protesters Plan Massive "Day of Wrath" in Egypt Today
Tunisians Thank Anonymous as North Africa Explodes
Huffington Post Disses the Jasmine Revolution
Tunisia: A Single Tweet Can Start A Prairie Fire!
Anonymous plans Op Swift Assist in Tunisia
Arrested Pirate Party Member Becomes Tunisian Minister
Is Libya Next? Anonymous Debates New Operation
Tunis: This Photo was Taken 66 Minutes Ago
The WikiLeaks Revolution: Anonymous Strikes Tunisia
EMERGENCY: DKos Must Act Now to Protect Tunisian Bloggers!
Free Software & Internet Show Communism is Possible
BREAKING - Digital Sit-Ins: The Internet Strikes Back!
Cyber War Report: New Front Opens Against Internet Coup d'état
Operation PayBack: 1st Cyber War Begins over WikiLeaks
The Internet Takeover: Why Google is Next
BREAKING: Goodbye Internet Freedom as Wikileaks is Taken Down
BREAKING NEWS: Obama Admin Takes Control of Internet Domains!
Things Even Keith Olbermann Won't Cover - UPDATE: VICTORY!!!
Stop Internet Blacklist Bill Now!
Sweet Victory on Internet Censorship: Senate Backs Off!
Internet Engineers tell the Senate to Back Off!
Why is Net Neutrality advocate Free Press MIA?
Obama's Internet Coup d'état
Julian Assange on Threat to Internet Freedom


This is a Great Victory for all people everywhere!

This is a day of Celebration!

In Solidarity,

Clay

Clay Claiborne, Producer
Vietnam: American Holocaust
Linux Beach
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