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JANUARY 26, 2011 |
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By Matthew Continetti |
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COLD OPEN |
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I can't be the only Republican in the country with a Rudy Giuliani hangover. I was an enthusiastic follower of the former New York City mayor's 2008 campaign, right up until the moment it was revealed that Giuliani actually had no clue how to win a presidential nomination. While Huckabee was winning in Iowa and McCain was picking up New Hampshire and South Carolina, Giuliani stuck to the delusion that Florida was somehow a firewall. His collapse was a disappointing coda to a remarkable career. It also cured me of some illusions. In retrospect, it was silly for me to believe that a metropolitan, pro-choice mayor could win the nomination of a party dominated by social conservatives living in suburban, exurban, and rural America.
Now the 2012 campaign is about to begin and, remarkably, Giuliani is back. For some time, he's been dropping hints that he might run again. On January 24 he gave an interview to CNN's Piers Morgan where he said that he's realized "you've got to win primaries in order to be nominated." If only he'd thought of that four years ago!
Giuliani says that he'd be tempted to run if Sarah Palin enters the race. In this scenario, all the energy would be on the conservative side, and Giuliani could run a contrast campaign as the "adult" moderate capable of appealing to the center. According to conventional wisdom, however, Giuliani would be even more out of touch in 2012 than in 2008. The conservative wing of the Republican party is where all the action is. The Tea Party is going to be a crucial factor in the nomination fight. Social issues are just as important as they were in 2008.
But then you realize that John McCain benefited from intra-conservative fighting four years ago. Not every Republican primary voter is a conservative. With Romney and Huckabee splitting conservatives, McCain was able to hold the middle and win the nomination. Perhaps Giuliani envisions a similar scenario in 2012: Everybody else tears each other apart fighting for the conservative vote while the mayor holds enough conservatives and plenty of moderates and independents to win primaries. Far-fetched, I know. But not inconceivable.
What is not conceivable, however, is that a pro-choicer could win the nomination of a pro-life party. By 2008, McCain had dispelled any confusion over his pro-life stance. Giuliani remains pro-choice and has never backed down from his position. Tea Party-enthusiasm to the contrary notwithstanding, social issues drive the GOP base like no others. (Remember, too, that most Tea Partiers are social conservatives.) I haven't the slightest idea whom the 2012 GOP nominee will be. But I do know he'll be pro-life. |
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LOOKING BACK |
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"The key to postmodernism is reflexivity, when words no longer seem to refer to anything outside themselves. Reflexivity set the tone for this primary season. In his stump speech, as well as in interviews, Richard Gephardt said he was 'energizing the base,' by which he hoped to energize the base. Howard Dean said he would be nominated because he 'was bringing new people into the process'—a remark that was designed to bring new people into the process who would then guarantee his nomination. It is an odd experience, watching politicians campaign using the same language their campaign managers use giving a backgrounder to political reporters. But the popularity of this new mode of discourse led several reporters and commentators to say that voters had become 'more sophisticated.' What it really showed, though, was that voters were starting to think like political reporters, which is not at all the same thing."
—Andrew Ferguson, "The Pomo Primary," from our March 15, 2004, issue.
Remember you get full access to THE WEEKLY STANDARD archive when you subscribe. |
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FROM THE DESKTOP |
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Ruth R. Wisse reviews "The Neoconservative Persuasion"
Greg Mankiw doesn't want to spread the wealth around
Thomas Edison's (incorrect) predictions for life in 2011
Where did all that stimulus money go?
Walter Russell Mead: 'The Next Social Upgrade' |
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QUOTE OF THE WEEK (SO FAR!) |
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"For as long as heroes are written about, Winston Churchill will be written about. The proportions are all abundantly there. He was everything. The soldier who loved poetry. The historian who loved to paint. The diplomat who thrived on indiscretion. The patriot with international vision. The orderly man given to electric spontaneities. The man who flunked everything at school and then kept a generation of scholars busy interpreting his work and his words. The loyal party man who could cross the aisle and join the opposition when principle called. The Tory traditionalist revered in his old age by the neoteric levelers."
—William F. Buckley Jr., "Churchill in the Balance" (1965), included in the new omnibus, Athwart History, edited by Linda Bridges & Roger Kimball. |
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LOOKING AHEAD |
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In our next issue, the STANDARD celebrates Ronald Reagan's centennial with articles and reviews by Fred Barnes, Andrew Ferguson, William Kristol—and more! |
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PARTING SHOT |
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Speaking of 2012, Tim Pawlenty has a problem. He's a capable, successful, two-term conservative governor of a blue state, running in a GOP field that's packed with celebrities. How to stand out in a crowd that might include Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin, Mike Huckabee, Newt Gingrich, Michele Bachmann, Rudy Giuliani, Ron Paul, and others? Making matters worse, Pawlenty might not be the only successful governor running in 2012. Mitch Daniels of Indiana, Haley Barbour of Mississippi, and Rick Perry of Texas all could throw their hats in the ring. And what if Jeb Bush wants the nomination? They better reinforce the platforms on which the Republicans hold debates—the weight of all those candidates could cause the structure to collapse.
If you're Pawlenty, then, you need a way to separate yourself from the pack. So you publish a self-indulgent memoir. You release a ridiculous promotional video that looks like it was directed by Michael Bay. You are tempted to make heated rhetorical pronouncements.
One wonders, though, if Pawlenty would be better served not doing such things. Why try to compete with the big fish in the cable-news pond when you could focus instead on building organizations in Iowa and New Hampshire? Voters may come to like your soft-spoken, results-oriented, hockey-loving charm. While Romney and Huckabee and the rest beat up on each other, you can play the adult. After all, in many ways a nomination fight is a process of elimination. Everyone else has their flaws. Play your cards right, and you could end up the last person standing.
See you next week. And don't forget you can write me at editor@weeklystandard.com.
--Matthew Continetti
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