Fwd: Hotline's Up!

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From: <hotline-alert@emails.nationaljournal.com>
Date: Dec 18, 2007 10:50 AM
Subject: Hotline's Up!
To: hotline-alert@emails.nationaljournal.com

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Tuesday, December 18, 2007

Newton's Law?

The new Diageo/Hotline nat'l poll shows Obama and Huckabee closing in on HRC and Giuliani, showing an appeal that stretches beyond early states. Early CW was that the front-loaded calendar would solidify frontrunners. Instead, it's the cands w/late-breaking mo' who may succeed. But Giuliani and HRC are still seen as strongest in 11/08. Can that help them break their opponents' stride?
-- Since our 7/07 poll, Huckabee has gone from an asterisk to second place. His high favs suggest it'll be hard for Romney or others to define him (esp. if he wins IA). Will there be enough time for neg attacks to penetrate? If Huckabee remains the story from now until 1/3, does this hurt McCain's chances in NH?
-- Dems want change more than experience, which should give Obama the edge. But HRC is tied w/Obama on change w/Edwards far behind. And she's ahead on experience, by almost 40 pts. HRC is also top 2nd choice pick, a sign that she's not hit her ceiling.
-- An HRC loss in IA would hurt. But if Giuliani gets overshadowed much longer, it's not clear he can survive.

"It breaks my heart, but that is true."

-- Hillary Clinton, on people who "don't like me, although they've never met me," National Journal/NBC, 12/18.

Mr. Independent
Obama hits rural IA - and Edwards - talking change. Just how up for grabs is the "anti-status quo" vote?

Don't You Forget About Me
Thompson embarks on IA bus tour w/new spring in his step. Can he still benefit from Huckabee vs. Romney?

Happy Holidays
Romney hits Huckabee on pardons, while HRC wants you to see her softer side and Huck wants us all to get along. ,

Two-Front War
SC's Graham praises McCain on his leadership bona-fides, but how many folks are thinking immigration/amnesty instead?

Hail!Hail! Michigan
New MI poll shows Giuliani slipping vs. Dems; McCain's the only GOPer to keep all Dems under 50%.

Bloomin' Onion
As the GOP race gets more unwieldy, rumors of a Bloomberg run (and expanding consultant pool) grow.

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White House 2008 -- The Republicans
    1    THE FIELD: Running On
    2     GIULIANI: Curb Your Enthusiasm
    3    HUCKABEE: Have A Huck Of A Christmas
    4    HUNTER: Wrong On Business
    5     MCCAIN: Stuck In The Middle With You
    6    PAUL: Antennas Up!
    7    ROMNEY: I Had To Leave A Little Girl In Kingston Town
    8    THOMPSON: King Me

White House 2008 -- The Democrats
    9    THE FIELD: Shall We Dance?
    10     BIDEN: Shaken, Not Stirred
    11    CLINTON : The Hillary I Know Brings Food
    12    DODD: Hmmmm, Sounds Like Fun
    13     EDWARDS: The Closer
    14    OBAMA: Some Snowflakes Are Extra Special
    15    RICHARDSON : The Hours

White House 2008 -- Other Updates
    16    THE FIELD: This Just In ...
    17     BLOOMBERG: Lo, How a Run E'er Bloomberg-ing
    18    IOWA (1/3 caucuses): Creating Spaces
    19    NEW HAMPSHIRE (1/8 primary): Independents' Day
    20    MICHIGAN (1/15 primary): Hillary, You Could Be The Greatest Ever
    21    NEVADA (1/19 caucuses): Reach Out
    22     SOUTH CAROLINA (1/19 GOP primary, 1/26 Dem primary): Sticking To Precedent
    23    2008 SCHEDULES: People Are Talkin', Talkin' 'Bout Edwards

National Briefing
24 IRAQ/IRAN: U-N-I-T-Y
25 BLOGOMETER: Loaded Language

Senate 2008
    26    COLORADO: Wasn't Jay The Silent One?
    27     NEW JERSEY: Frankly, It's A Tough State
    28    OREGON: Let's Keep This Family Friendly
    29    SOUTH CAROLINA: Mary Christmas, Lindsey

Hotline Extras!
30 HOTLINE NEWS: Does Everyone's Office Feel Like A Tuberculosis Ward This Week?

Poll Update
31 DIAGEO/HOTLINE: Ready Or Not, Here They Come
32 USA TODAY/GALLUP: What Obama Surge?

People
    33    BUSH: Yakkity Yak
    34     CRAIG: Where Have All The Cowboys Gone?
    35    MURKOWSKI/STEVENS: Enjoy Our National Parks
    36    LOTT: Requiem For The Hanmer
    37     BREDESEN: Bunker Mentality
    38    RYAN: Nothing Says Festive Like Facial Hair
    39    SNOW: Sticking To It
    40     POLICE LOG: Just Taking An Early Vaycay
    41    NEWS BAZAAR: He Saved The Crawdad Olympics!

Media Monitor

NOT THE HOLIDAY PERRY COMO WAS SINGING ABOUT
Campaigns seem inclined to lay off phone-calling Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, but will that be the only respite for Iowans until 1/3? Will any campaigns press their luck too far and wake up New Year's Eve partiers on 1/1? Indeed, can we expect any groups to place Christmas Eve calls which purport to be from rival camps simply to annoy voters?

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